WASHINGTON — As Stacey Abrams builds her second gubernatorial campaign in four years, she is looking at a Georgia electorate that is far larger, younger and less white than the one that handed her a narrow defeat four years ago, according to an analysis her aides provided exclusively to NBC News. That's one reason Abrams is confident that the result will be different this time, despite a national political wind that has shifted to Republicans' backs following the election of Joe Biden to the presidency in 2020 and Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to the Senate in January. Nearly 1.3 million Georgians have registered to vote since her first bid in 2018. Forty-seven percent of them are people of color, 31.6 percent of them are Black and 43 percent of them are under the age of 30 — cohorts that traditionally skew heavily toward Democrats — according to the Abrams campaign's analysis. Almost 250,000 of them have registered since the 2020 election. And while voters don't register by party in Georgia, the campaign's modeling of available information on newer registrants estimates that 45 percent are likely Democratic voters and 28 percent are likely Republican voters, with the remaining 27 percent unclassified as yet because of a lack of available data. “There is a clear trajectory that has been present for a decade that is continuing of who has registered since 2018 — who is eligible to vote for Stacey this time that was not on the rolls last time," said Abrams campaign spokesman Seth Bringman. The challenges facing Abrams are historic. She would be the first woman and first person of color to win Georgia's governorship, and both the well-established historical trend and fresh electoral evidence suggest Democrats who win in the mid-terms will have to overcome a wind at Republicans' backs. Biden's approval rating is upside-down at 42.3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, and Republicans made major gains in Virginia and New Jersey elections last month. But Abrams' camp believes the shifts in those states, driven in part by white suburbanites, won't be echoed in Georgia because the electorates are different. The campaign's analysis found that 52 percent of registered voters in Georgia suburbs are people of color, whereas the comparable demographics in Virginia and New Jersey are 25 percent and 17 percent, respectively. That sets up a contest not just among the candidates, but between the trend in the state's voting patterns — once a bastion of Republican strength, a streak of narrow Democratic wins fueled by Abrams' registration and turnout efforts has demonstrated its competitiveness — and what appears to be significant momentum for Republicans nationally. And yet some Republicans have reason to fear that former President Donald Trump's entry into the fray — he has called for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp's ouster and encouraged former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., to get in — could ravage the party's chances of holding the governor's seat. "If that happens, it will be the biggest bloodletting Georgia has seen since Sherman took Atlanta," University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock said, referring to Union Gen. William Sherman's burning of the city in 186 . . . read the full article here.